Tuesday, December 28, 2004

Can Human Behaviour be Predicted ?

Hi,
Well, The general perception is that it isn't possible to predict human thoughts and actions in mathematical terms. I beg to disagree. I think that we will indeed have a mathematical theory which will describe human behaviour. I got this idea from chemical kinetics.
At the turn of 20th century, the motion of gas molecules was considered to be too random to be formularized. But work done by some great guys like van't Hoff, Arrehnius, van der Waal, Boltzmann , and of course, the omni-present Einstein, helped to formulate what is today known as the Gas Laws. The Gas Laws do not tell what a particular molecule will do at a particular instant. they only tell us about the average pattern.
Similarly, a mathematical theory of human behaviour doesn’t mean that we will be able to predict whether the girl to whom you proposed will say 'yes', or 'no'.(......though I hope it does , ha !). You might object that we can talk about equations only of in-animate entities such as molecules, but not in case of humans, coz we have a mind of our own. But you will observe that experiences that we feel unique to ourselves are somewhat common. Moreover, our reactions to a particular situation are also quiet predictable.
In fact, a part of such a theory is already into existence. It is called as " Game Theory", pioneered by John von Neumann, and further developed by John Forbes Nash. I happened to read an elementary book on this subject, and found it quite exciting.
It might take a decade for a complete theory of human behaviour, or it may even take a century, but am sure it will come eventually. I only hope that some Indian does it.
- Gautam.